Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 29.233571 32.509126 36.256192 40.921363 46.664753 53.632917 62.939923
2025-06-08 24.275979 28.321579 33.357502 40.293586 49.971825 63.673187 86.069985
2025-06-15 21.096079 25.450628 31.211835 39.789409 53.080304 74.800817 118.979114
2025-06-22 18.918472 23.411152 29.643399 39.532565 56.329768 87.869759 170.175857
2025-06-29 17.114646 21.569931 27.968659 38.627955 58.129486 99.538462 240.247732
2025-07-06 16.373953 21.090997 28.156943 40.672180 65.963877 130.439618 496.458565
2025-07-13 15.254809 19.907248 27.057024 40.219447 68.643300 151.663516 973.352907
2025-07-20 14.453760 19.104994 26.437101 40.478843 73.035657 184.790204 3838.977148
2025-07-27 13.787167 18.435403 25.934709 40.837754 77.892641 229.932838 NaN
2025-08-03 13.135553 17.725565 25.269796 40.723897 81.522330 280.501596 NaN
2025-08-10 12.501081 16.989197 24.473563 40.179136 83.743417 333.100332 NaN
2025-08-17 12.028908 16.478225 24.020747 40.295189 88.194311 429.465324 NaN
2025-08-24 11.537025 15.907543 23.417267 40.003260 91.403605 548.798201 NaN
2025-08-31 11.064355 15.338375 22.765593 39.496798 93.744553 700.173791 NaN
2025-09-07 10.642050 14.827637 22.178775 39.053683 96.254599 931.235832 NaN
2025-09-14 10.280613 14.398220 21.709302 38.825176 99.685079 1368.830981 NaN
2025-09-21 9.880078 13.879416 21.026480 37.956071 99.948033 1798.874348 NaN
2025-09-28 9.803023 13.913345 21.421730 39.945719 115.406861 15666.576646 NaN
2025-10-05 9.494382 13.523617 20.940813 39.508290 118.246061 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.270978 13.272672 20.720568 39.761147 125.501355 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.070458 13.051561 20.543233 40.110070 134.023302 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.844167 12.772785 20.225283 39.999747 139.672368 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.598137 12.447399 19.788012 39.470880 142.055676 NaN NaN